On the occasion, weekend before last, of the temporary lull in a post-surge uptick in violence in Iraq, Powerline's John Hinderaker wrote, beneath the heading "SADR SAYS UNCLE":
This episode might prove to be, as President Bush suggested, a defining moment in Iraq's post-war history. . . . The fact that Iraqi soldiers took the lead in rooting out Sadr's militia may demonstrate to Iraqis that Maliki's government represents all Iraqis, not just the Shia.
The offensive against al-Sadr's Mahdi Army is thus the latest in the long line of "defining moments" and "turning points" in the colossal blunder that is America's war in Iraq. An abbreviated list would include the toppling in Baghdad of the statue of Saddam Hussein (9 April 2003), President Bush's triumphant speech under the "Mission Accomplished" banner on the USS Abraham Lincoln off the coast of California (1 May 2003), the killing of Saddam's sons Uday and Qusay by U.S. forces (22 July 2003), the capture of Saddam himself (13 December 2003), the transfer of "sovereignty" to an Iraqi interim government (28 June 2004), the Iraqi elections for a national assembly (30 January 2005), the declaration by Vice President Cheney that the Iraqi insurgency is "in its last throes" (30 May 2005), the ratification of a new Iraqi constitution (15 October 2005), the election of a new Iraqi national assembly (15 December 2005), the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi by U.S. forces (7 June 2006), the hanging of Saddam Hussein (30 December 2006), the announcement by President Bush of a troop "surge" in Iraq (10 January 2007), the elevation of General David Petraeus to the high command of U.S. forces in Iraq (10 February 2007), the stroll through a Baghdad market by John McCain (1 April 2007), the prediction by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) that political reconciliation in Iraq is likely "within weeks" (7 September 2007), the upbeat assessment by General Petraeus regarding the effect of the "surge" in testimony before a congressional committee (11 September 2007), the display by General Petraeus of charts showing that violence in Iraq has declined by 60% over the past six months (6 December 2007), and, now, al-Sadr calls it quits (30 March 2008).
Even Hinderaker doesn't seem to believe it anymore--note the weaseling "may" and "might." To the reality-based community, the activities of the Madhi Army, and the Iraqi government's crackdown on it, look more like sources of dangerous political instability--what the "surge" was meant to repair--than any positive "defining moment."
I should say that I don't always disagree with Hinderaker. On 2 February 2004 he wrote:
One of the most powerful forces in human affairs is wishful thinking. Its impact is incalculable.
Indeed.
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