Well, I've been obsessed with the presidential horse race now for a long time, so let's take a look at where things seem to stand around sixty hours before the polls open in Minnesota.
The electoral map at pollster.com is pretty much what you get at real clear politics, which in turn tracks very closely with fivethirtyeight.com. For those with no rooting interest, as opposed to fearful and long-suffering Democrats such as myself, it must be obvious that Obama is in a dominant position. According to pollster.com, he has 311 electoral votes at least leaning his direction, and, of these, 264, or just six fewer than the number needed to win, are "strong." This means that, to become president, McCain would have to win all the remaining toss-up states--North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana--plus all the ones that are only "leaning" toward Obama. These light blue states are Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada. According to the "trend estimate," McCain is at least six points down in all four.
We should know relatively early on Tuesday evening whether my quaking confidence is warranted. McCain has two paths to victory. One, the "inside straight" strategy, is suggested by the above analysis: he could win every state that he is ahead in plus every state in which he trails by fewer than around six points. That path is blocked if Obama wins Virginia, as he appears poised to do. McCain's second path is the Pennsylvania strategy. He has been spending a lot of time there, on the theory, I think, that turning Pennsylvania is a less daunting task than turning all the light-blue states. A couple recent polls have shown Obama ahead by only four points in Pennsylvania, but the Democrat's average lead in the state is still around eight or nine points. Note, too, that, as 311 - 21 = 290 > 270, McCain, even with Pennsylvania, needs to win at least two of the four states currently leaning to Obama.
Pennsylvania, like Virginia, is entirely in the eastern time zone. If news organizations are able to declare Obama the winner in both states before too many actual ballots have been counted, exhale--and turn your attention to the races for the House and Senate. We have at least three hot ones in Minnesota: the Senate contest between Coleman and Franken, and the races in the third and sixth congressional districts, where Ashwin Madia and Elwyn Tinklenberg, respectively, have shots at picking up Republican seats. Tinklenbeg's race, in particular, has a high profile, because his opponent is Michele Bachmann, and, thanks to her interview with Chris Mathews a couple weeks ago, people from coast to coast now know what sober people from these parts have known for a long time: she's a crackpot.
Michael Tomasky details the latest news from the Minnesota Senate race here. It's unclear whether the story can stand out from the noise of the last weekend enough to make a difference. The Senate scorecard at fivethirtyeight.com gives Franken a 53% chance of winning. Is that more like Shaq making or missing a foul shot? Perhaps it's bad to care so much. If it all gets away we'll still have this:
No, no, no, no! Come, let's away to prison.
We two alone will sing like birds i' th' cage.
When thou dost ask me blessing, I'll kneel down
And ask of thee forgiveness. So we'll live,
And pray, and sing, and tell old tales, and laugh
At gilded butterflies, and hear poor rogues
Talk of court news; and we'll talk with them too--
Who loses and who wins; who's in, who's out--
And take upon 's the mystery of things
As if we were God's spies; and we'll wear out,
In a walled prison, packs and sects of great ones
That ebb and flow by th' moon.
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