I haven't placed a post in my "Power Out" category for awhile. What are the philosophers up to? Well, Scott Johnson doesn't like the Minnesota Poll, which, he says, seems "regularly to overstate Democratic strength." The poll's latest offense is to find that Mark Dayton is 9 points ahead of Tom Emmer in our gubernatorial race. Johnson relates the tale of how, in 2002, when Norm Coleman was running for US Senate against first Paul Wellstone and then, after Wellstone's death, Walter Mondale, he (Johnson) wanted to bet the poll's director that on election day Coleman would do at least five points better than "the final pre-election Minnesota Poll would show." The director "wisely" declined, and Coleman, according to Johnson, outperformed the final poll by 9 points.
It is not really so surprising that a candidate should, on election day, surpass the support measured in a poll, where after all "undecided" is a choice. Johnson doesn't appear to be saying anything more than that some undecided voters end up casting a ballot for the Republican. So what? He needs to be fact-checked, anyway. The Minnesota Poll's last measurement of the 2002 US Senate race in Minnesota is here. It shows Coleman at 44% and Mondale at 42%. On election day, Coleman won, 49.5% to 47.3%. What is Johnson talking about?
For the record, here is the final Minnesota Poll result of the most recent high-profile, statewide races in Minnesota, together with the actual result.
In the 2008 US Senate race, the final Minnesota Poll showed Franken leading Coleman by 42-38; the result, of course, was a virtual dead heat, with Franken winning by the narrowest of margins. The final poll of the 2006 governor's race had Democrat Mike Hatch ahead of Republican Tim Pawlenty by 42-39; on election day, Pawlenty won by 1%. In the US Senate race that year, the last Minnesota Poll had Democrat Amy Klobuchar at 54% and Republican Mark Kennedy at 33%; Klobuchar won the election, 58-38. In the presidential election of 2004, the last Minnesota Poll had Kerry leading Bush by 46-42; Kerry won the state by 51.1 to 47.6. The last measurement of the 2002 gubernatorial race had Pawlenty ahead of Democrat Roger Moe by 41-28; Pawlenty won the election, 44.4 to 36.5. In the 2000 presidential race, the last Minnesota Poll showed Gore at 41% and Bush at 36%; Gore carried the state, 47.9 to 45.5.
Today--one day after Johnson denounced the Minnesota Poll--a different poll, showing Dayton even farther ahead of Emmer, was published. Johnson has a post up about that one, too. Money quote: "It should be noted that the MPR/Humphrey Institute poll results tend to support the Star Tribune Minnesota Poll's, though it seems to me they raise similar questions."
It seems to me that he's a joke.
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