One week till election day. According to Nate Silver, the Republicans have an 80% chance of winning back the House, while Democrats have an 84% chance of retaining their majority in the Senate. A few embarrassing crackpots--Sharron Angle in Nevada, Rand Paul in Kentucky, Ken Buck in Colorado--are at least slight favorites to win Senate seats.
Here in Minnesota, the outlook is not as discouraging. Mark Dayton appears positioned to win the governor's race. If, as seems likely, the DFL incumbents win their races for secretary of state, attorney general, and auditor, it will be a clean sweep of the statewide races. Why is Minnesota bucking the trend? Well, it helps that the Republican standard-bearer, their endorsed candidate for governor, Tom Emmer, is erratic, extreme, ill-informed, and loose-tongued. He reminds me of something Sam Nunn said when asked, on the occasion of Newt Gingrich being elevated to Speaker of the House, whether he had any advice for his fellow Georgian. "I think he should keep a higher percentage of his thoughts unexpressed," Nunn said.
But Emmer isn't more ridiculous than Angle or Paul or Buck. It is tempting to suggest that in Keillorville we have a lower tolerance for manifest nutters, but that would not account for Michele Bachmann, who is as crazy as they come. Silver gives her a 98% chance of being re-elected. It's not a case of having weak opponents. Elwyn Tinklenberg, who lost to her two years ago, is a sensible, very moderate Democrat, a seminary graduate, former Methodist clergyman, former state commissioner of transportation. He was endorsed by both the DFL and the Independence Party, and was also the beneficiary of a flood of campaign cash after Bachmann told Chris Matthews, on Hardball, that Barack Obama likely harbors un-American views and that the media should "take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out are they pro-America, or anti-America." Bachmann won by three points. This year's foe, Tarryl Clark, a state legislator, has raised tons of money (though less than Bachmann) and has waged an energetic campaign, but is going to fall short, too.
For those of us embarrassed to be from a state represented by Bachmann, the best hope may be the results of the 2010 census, and the prospect of redistricting. The current alignment around the Twin Cities appears designed to maximize Republican representation. Of the five districts, two are almost entirely within the city limits of Minneapolis and St. Paul, and these are overwhelmingly Democratic. The other three carve up the suburban and ex-urban area and are all represented by Republicans. If the districts were instead pie-shaped, narrowing as they converged on the urban core, we would have more competetive races and, quite possibly, zero Republicans instead of three.* Certainly we would not have to worry about being identified on national news shows as the home state of Rep. Michele Bachmann.
If Minnesota loses a congressional district, the map will have to be redrawn in one manner or another, and there is a good chance Bachmann would find herself without a place to run--or, if she did run, without a district in which she can win.
*In the last two presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has received, on average, 55% of the vote in these five districts. It isn't easy to take this area and draw lines in such a way as to create five districts of equal population, three of which favor Republicans--but that is what we have.
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