Whenever Trump starts rattling on about how the election is "rigged" in some undefined way, my thoughts turn to the wide gap between what's usually called the "generic congressional ballot" and the actual composition of the House of Representatives. Currently the Real Clear Politics site shows Democrats holding about a six point edge in the 2016 generic congressional ballot. In other words, when asked whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for US House, about 46 percent of poll respondents answer "Democrat," compared to 40 percent who say "Republican."
So you might think that Democrats are poised to gain control of the House. For that to happen, however, things would have to get somewhat worse for the Republicans. The accompanying chart, from the Princeton Election Consortium, indicates that an aggregate six-point margin for Democratic House candidates across the country means "likelier GOP control" of the House. To have a decent shot at winning a majority, the Democratic advantage in the nationwide vote has to rise to around eight percent.
How could that be? Gerrymandered district boundaries. I gave an account of how it works in "Republican Cartography," here. Elizabeth Kolbert, reviewing the definitive explication, which is David Daley's Ratf**ked: The True Story Behind the Secret Plan to Steal America's Democracy, has more here. I will append a visual aid, from The Washington Post, below. Close observers of the Princeton chart above will note that in 2012 we had a very close race in the generic congressional vote--Democrats won, but by only 1.2 percent of the vote. So what was the outcome, in terms of actual representation in the House? Republicans, 234; Democrats, 201. I remember John Boehner, the Republican Speaker, crowing that, while Obama might have been re-elected, "the American people" had chosen Republicans to lead the House of Representatives. Seems problematic, considering that more "American people" voted for a Democrat.
Talk about "rigged."
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