The utility of lying depends upon a threshold plausibility, since generally the whole purpose is to deceive. What then is the point of Trump insisting that he didn't "carry on" (my mom's phrase for the type of activity in question) with porn star Stormy Daniels when it's obvious he did? No one is deceived, everyone knows he's lying, so there is no point to it.
The best answer to this riddle is probably that Trump doesn't lie to deceive. It's just that he cares so little for the truth that his speech acts are true or false in a way that is essentially random. With regard to marital infidelity, it's customary to deny one's guilt, so like everyone else Trump does, too: there's no strategy, just a reflexive impulse to lie.
The second best answer is probably that he does have a rational strategy and, while it doesn't require that anyone be deceived, he does benefit from standing by an obviously false story. For example, he cares a lot about money, and it may be that by the terms of his pre-nup the pot sweetens for Melania if he is unfaithful. It's okay if she "knows" he's cheated but it would be costly for him to stipulate to it himself.
On the basketball front, it seems to me that of all the stunning conclusions to NCAA tournament games--the ones that get played on tape over and over again to promote the tournament--a very high percentage begin with an offensive player standing alone and unguarded behind his own basket and then delivering a long, accurate pass up the court to someone who sinks a game-winner at the buzzer, or passes to someone who makes the winning shot. If I'm the coach, I guard the inbounds passer with the guy on my team with the longest wingspan. If he tips the pass, game over. Even if he just makes the passer throw the ball higher, the extra hang time gives the other defenders time to react, and the chance of a clean catch and shot drops precipitously.
Anyway, that's what it seems like to me. I'm more confident about Trump being a liar and a crook.
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