Presidents, by their Supreme Court picks, have a profound effect on national affairs long after they've left office, and even sometimes long after they've shuffled off this mortal coil--Anthony Kennedy, who just announced his retirement from the high court, was appointed by President Reagan in 1987, and has for years supplied the swing vote for an array of 5-4 decisions. Since Trump is poised to appoint a conservative jurist who will, if the actuaries aren't surprised, make the Court an instrument for advancing conservative causes for a generation or more into the future, one would expect, looking backwards, to see a string of Republican victories at the presidential level. Yet Democrats have won four of the last seven presidential elections, and in two of the other three, the Democratic candidate received more votes than the Republican. So Republican hegemony at the Supreme Court is being achieved despite Republicans having lost the popular vote in six of the last seven elections. Americans haven't voted for a very conservative Supreme Court, but it's what they're getting.
How did it happen? Well, there is a roulette effect connected to the randomness with which openings occur. A president might get to appoint three justices within a year or two, and there might then not be another opening for ten years. Of course it isn't entirely random. The Trump administration appears to have encouraged Kennedy to retire now, and, on the other side of the divide, Ruth Bader Ginsburg would probably have to croak before Trump could name her successor. I just saw the movie RBG, about Ginsburg's life, and it takes up briefly the question of whether she should have retired while Obama was still president. Were she to die while Trump was still in office--ugh, I don't want to think about it.
There are 435 members of the House of Representatives, and a hundred senators, but only nine justices of the Supreme Court and their appointments are for life. Anything anomalous or "chancy" that happens with respect to the appointment of a new justice is therefore of supersized import. Obama was president for eight years and made two appointments. Trump is about to make his second appointment within eighteen months of taking office. This wasn't just a matter of good luck for Republicans. Trump's first appointee, Neil Gorsuch, replaced Antonin Scalia, who died suddenly on February 13, 2016, about eleven months before the end of Obama's second term. As the Constitution provides, Obama nominated a new justice, Merrick Garland, for the open seat, but Republicans in the Senate then refused to hold hearings or a vote until after Trump was elected and named Gorsuch instead. It wasn't a matter of the time being too short for Garland: Republican senators are talking now about confirming Trump's choice by Labor Day, two months down the road, after having refused to hold hearings on the Garland nomination for close to a year. Their "argument," such as it was, relating to the Garland nomination is almost too half-cocked for words. It had to do with it being an election year, and Obama being a "lame duck." In politics, a "lame duck" refers to someone holding office during the interim period after his successor has been elected but before the successor is sworn in. By the private and ad hoc definition of Senate Republicans, it evidently refers to a president in his second term who cannot run for a third term, but by this logic it seems a president should be barred from appointing anyone to the Supreme Court for all four years of a second term. That's ridiculous, and thus, perhaps, the other made-up argument about no appointments in an election year. Too many lame reasons, like when a guy calls into the office to say he won't be in because he has the flu and his car won't start.
It will forever be unclear on what date, according to Republicans, Obama lost the constitutional authority to fill vacancies on the Supreme Court, and it's probably useless to query law and logic on this question. For there was no principle, just a naked exercise of power on the part of Senate Republicans. They did it because they thought they could get away with it, and events proved them to be right. If, however, Garland had been appointed, he would have been a moderately liberal justice replacing a very conservative one, Scalia, and the center of the Supreme Court would then have not stood at such a grotesque remove from what Americans, judging by the ballots they have cast, want.
I don't know if it follows that we should spit in their food when they patronize Mexican restaurants, but it's pretty rich of Republicans to expect Democrats to play nice and knuckle under while their Supreme Court decides that the rules are going to be exactly what the majority of us voted against.