With respect to Trump's Supreme Court selection, the vote-counting has begun before the nominee has been named. On the Republican side, people are eyeing Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, two GOP senators who are on record as supporting abortion rights. Since only 51 of the hundred senators are Republican, and one of them, John McCain, who is very ill, probably won't vote, a defection by either Collins or Murkowski would sink the nominee--if the 49 Democrats hold together. But that's a big "if." There are in the Senate five Democratic incumbents from states Trump won by at least 18 percentage points who are facing reelection this fall--Joe Manchin of West Virginia (Trump won by +42), Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota (+36), Jon Tester of Montana (+20), Joe Donnelly of Indiana (+19), and Claire McCaskill of Missouri (+18). Three of these senators--Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp--voted for Neil Gorsuch, the justice nominated by Trump to replace Antonin Scalia. (Trump, ill-informed as ever, unless he was just lying, said at a recent rally in Fargo that Heitkamp, who already voted for Gorsuch, was certain to vote against anyone he nominates.) If on the Republican side only the votes of Collins and Murkowski are in play, the Democrats' situation appears desperate. It is also doubtful, in the unlikely event that the Democrats can somehow force a delay, that the makeup of the Senate will be less friendly to a Trump nominee after the midterm elections.
Over the weekend, however, Collins said: "I would not support a nominee who would demonstrate hostility to Roe v Wade." Perhaps the devil is in the lawyerly diction, especially demonstrate, a weasel word that could allow her to equivocate after voting for the nominee. We can be sure no one will say, in their confirmation hearing, that they would vote to overturn Roe. But everyone on Trump's list has been vetted by the Federalist Society and Heritage Foundation, so we can also be sure that all have demonstrated, to the satisfaction of these right-wing groups, their opposition to abortion rights. The whole point of the list, which was compiled and released during the campaign, was to secure the votes of social conservatives who might otherwise be reluctant to vote for a self-proclaimed pussy-grabber from Manhattan who is plainly a serial violator of the commandment regarding adultery, etc., etc., etc.
Still, if Collins votes against Trump's pick, the chance that the nomination fails goes from very unlikely to quite possible. For one thing, it would make it easier for Murkowski to join Collins in bucking her party, as she did on the effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. This in turn would make it more likely that 49 Democrats remain united in opposition. Is Heitkamp, for example, going to support a nominee who is unacceptable to Collins and Murkowski? The Democrats are behind, and it's the ninth inning, but it's possible to get a rally going.
Turning from sports metaphors to actual sports news, I see that LeBron is headed west, to the Lakers. My view has been expressed by the comedian Mike Drucker:
To anyone mad about LeBron going to the Lakers, it’s important to remember that nothing any of us do ultimately has any meaning because our entire civilization is nothing more than a brief spark in a mostly dark universe - not loved, not hated, but simply not remembered
— Mike Drucker (@MikeDrucker) July 2, 2018
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