Finish the game, ladies!

 

Twice this winter I have while flipping through the channels stumbled on a Gopher women's basketball game, early second half, Gophers with what is sometimes called "a working lead," and both times I watched to the end. 

First time was about a month ago.  They were in Lincoln playing the Cornhuskers.  About half way through the fourth quarter, the "working lead" had been cut to six, and Nebraska then scored the last 12 points of the game to win by six.

Second time was day before yesterday.  They were playing Maryland, the first place team in the conference, on Maryland's court.  When I started watching, the game was in the third quarter, and the Gophers were ahead, 50-something to 30-something.  Even though the Gophers were on a 6-game winning streak, this was unexpected, and I settled in to watch.  With (I believe) 1:17 left to play, the Gophers' lead was down to seven, but they had the ball and a full shot clock.  Maryland then scored nine unanswered points to win the game.  

No missed free throws.  In the last 70 seconds or so, the Gophers turned the ball over three times and Maryland scored four baskets, one a 3-pointer.  The tying basket came with four seconds left.  The Gophers' inbounds pass was then intercepted and the winning basket scored at the buzzer.  

Looking at the box score, I see that the minutes played for the five Gopher starters were 36, 36, 37, 39, and 40.  (The game is 40 minutes.)  The first of the three late turnovers was an offensive foul called against one of the Gophers' best players, a guard who's a confident ballhandler.  Since it was her fifth foul, she had to leave the game, and both bench players who had been in the game--Coach Lindsay Whalen only played seven kids--are post players.  One of them checked back in and the collapse continued.  

On most days I'm not in charge of the main TV set around here, so I sometimes "watch" games on the ESPN game tracker, and have been intrigued by the "win probability" meter that goes up and down as the game progresses.  I see now that in this game the Gophers' win probability with about a minute to go stood at 99.8%.  That it was under 100 suggests to me that it's really quite sophisticated and not a gimmick.