Trump, I learn from watching news shows, plans to "run on the economy," which he says is the best it's ever been. It's especially great compared to the "pathetic" economic performance we all endured during his predecessor's time in office. I don't know how best to measure economic health, but, assuming my antennae aren't askew, the things Trump crows about most are the stock market, job growth, and GDP growth. So let's take those one at a time, comparing metrics for "Trump so far" to the four preceding years, when we were suffering horribly.
From the start of 2013 to the end of 2016, the DJIA rose from 13,104 to 19,762, an increase of 51%. To match that rise, the index would have to hit 29,840 by January of 2021. It's currently at 28,990. So far, so good! If the Dow can add another thousand points over the next eleven months, it's performance in Trump's first term will have exceeded (barely) what it did over the preceding four years, when Obama was working assiduously to destroy America. If you go here and choose "by President," you'll see that matching the Obama record with respect to the S&P will be somewhat more difficult.
Next, job creation. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American economy added 10.355 million jobs in the 48 months commencing January of 2013. That's an average of 216,000 per month. Starting January of 2017, the month Trump was inaugurated, there have been 6.94 million new jobs created, which is an average of 193,000 per month. Average monthly job growth during Obama's second term eclipsed that of "Trump so far" by nearly 12%. I don't think it's a case of Trump's policies not having had time yet to take effect. His weakest year for job growth was the one just completed.
Regarding GDP growth, Trump keeps predicting (and promising) numbers that would compete with the best recorded since we amped up to fight World War II. For example, while hosting a group of business leaders at his Bedminster resort in August of 2018, he said GDP growth would soon be "in the fives," meaning it would exceed 5%. During the 2016 campaign, he noted that the Obama administration had never hit 3% growth, the post-World War II average. But to date the Trump administration hasn't, either. For 2018, the figure was 2.9%, which matched Obama's best year. In 2017, it was 2.4%. Almost all forecasters who don't work for Trump think the 2018 figure will prove to be the high mark for his administration. "In the fives"—that's just him running his mouth. More here and here.
Incumbents seeking reelection often ask: Are you better off now than you were four years ago? If the answer to that question relates to these topics Trump loves bragging about, it seems the answer is: maybe, especially if you own stock, in which case your portfolio has likely been growing at roughly the same rate for well over four years. Supposing Americans who don't own stocks were to answer the question with a question: what is the chance I'll still be alive in four years? For the first time while I've been alive, the answer is: chance of that is sliding. Life expectancy in the U.S. has declined for three consecutive years. This isn't a malaise afflicting other rich, developed countries. We've trailed in this vital statistic for a long time, but now, with us headed south while our international peers continue to creep ahead, the gap is widening. The most frequently cited causes are:
- an increase in "deaths of despair"—drug overdoses, suicides, diseases arising from alcoholism—in Americans aged 25 to 64; and
- lack of access to health care.
With respect to the second, the percentage of Americans without health insurance rose, during Trump's first two years in office, from 10.9% to 13.7%—see graph above. That represents around 7 million people who probably aren't better off. Joseph Stiglitz has more, here.
But, sure, run on the economy. Makes more sense than claiming that the swamp's been drained!
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