I. Christopher Hale, the Democratic candidate for Congress in Tennessee's 4th congressional district, recently observed:
My opponent pulled a gun on his first wife and shot it, forced her and mistresses into three abortions, and illegally prescribed painkillers for a patient he was sleeping with while married.
Me? Not so much. I will vote to give you health care though.
Chip in.
His opponent is the Republican incumbent, Scott DesJarlais (pictured). Something about the whimsy of the second paragraph made me think, or hope, that the charges in the first paragraph might be at least arguably exaggerated, but I guess they're not. It's all in the family court file from his divorce. There is also a tape, made by DesJarlais himself, of a phone conversation in which he pressures a woman to have an abortion. He was at the time boffing her, as we say, "on the side." DesJarlais was originally elected to Congress in 2010 (the tea party year). His colorful lifestyle came to light in October, 2012, before his first reelection effort, which he won, like all the subsequent ones. His district is rated R+20, the technical definition of which is, I believe, that it is 20 points more Republican than the country as a whole. Possibly that understates it. When in 2016 DesJarlais was reelected to a fourth term by 30 points, Trump carried the district by more than 40 points. In 2018 DesJarlais's margin was up to 40 points, too. You'd think maybe another Republican could beat him in a primary, but no. Here is an article in which a Tennessee political reporter tries to explain to himself and the world how DesJarlais does it. The headline is "The Biggest Hypocrite in Congress?"
I wonder whether the headline first said "The Biggest Hypocrite in Congress" and then an editor changed it to "The Biggest Hypocrite in Congress?"—because, you know, competition: it's not clear that in the body of 535 he's really the biggest. But if the Wikipedia article on DesJarlais is two-thirds true, his claim is stronger than I've made it sound.
II. Those interested in Electoral College Strategy, 2020 edition, might want to peruse this paper by Doug Sosnik, a political advisor to President Clinton. He says Biden's likeliest path to victory is the twenty states Hillary won plus Pennsylvania plus Michigan plus Arizona. (The Clinton states plus only Pennsylvania and Michigan would leave Biden on the short side of a 268-270 tally.) More provocative, perhaps, is his prediction that by the end of the decade there will be a big U-shaped wall of Democratic states around the periphery of the continental 48, from Washington State to California across to Florida then up the other coast to New England and including, most notably, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.
I don't know. Better win this year as things may change slower, or faster, than anyone currently imagines. In 1956, Republican Dwight Eisenhower carried 41 of 48 states. The seven states he lost were all in Dixie. Eight years later, the Republican, Barry Goldwater, lost 44 of 50 states, and, excepting his native Arizona, his only victories were in Dixie. And eight years after that, in 1972, the Republican, Richard Nixon, won every state but Massachusetts. In sixteen years, the map went from all red to all blue and back to all red again.
III. Did you see the online commencement address delivered by Ben Saase, Republican of Nebraska? Good grief. I think he thought he was being funny? Note to self: this must be what happens when someone is taught from infancy that everything out of his mouth is clever and laded with wit and insight. Be mean to your kids because, when the disease is narcissism, self-diagnosis is out of the question.
Comments