I. Having plugged, here, M J Hegar, Democratic candidate for US Senate in Texas, I should follow up by noting that she debated her opponent, incumbent Republican John Cornyn, a couple nights ago. The entire 1-hour debate may be viewed above (from YouTube). Cornyn wasn't as disgusting as Trump in the presidential "debate," but not making an ass of himself allowed Hegar to perform the feat. That, anyway, is my assessment: you can watch for yourself. Perhaps she could cut back on the "y'alls." To my midwestern ear (which could be "off"), it sounds like someone not from Texas trying to sound like someone from Texas, which in her case shouldn't be necessary as she's been a Texan since she was 7. Whatevs. The debate is between a genuine, earnest, informed person and a mannequin. So much complicated biology just to hold up a suit of clothes!
II. I hope Hegar helped herself, but she's still a pronounced underdog. I'm beginning to think that Jaime Harrison is no longer an underdog against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. Cook Political Report, after moving the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" several weeks ago, has now moved it again—to "Toss Up." Graham has gone on Fox News to whine about being "slaughtered" in fund raising. What's up with that?—a Republican who's been in Congress for 25 years and doesn't have enough rich donors to counteract the contributions of some movie stars? In the last five polls of the state, all conducted since mid September, Graham led in two (both by a single point), Harrison led in two (one by one point and by two in the other), and the fifth was a tie. Toss up seems apt.
III. The North Carolina senate race is fun. Thom Tillis, the Republican incumbent, has Covid, and Cal Cunningham, his Democratic challenger, has been busted for sexting with a woman to whom he is not married—he's married to someone else, as is his co-sexter. John Hinderaker, of the unintentionally hilarious Power Line blog, thinks evidence of the "torrid affair" will doom Cunningham. I'm not so sure. For one thing, I've read the sexts and can report that at least one Norwegian in the world thinks they do not come up to the level of "torrid." If evangelical Republicans vote for the pussy-grabber, it seems at least possible that the famously godless Dems of North Carolina will stick with Cunningham, who for now still appears to be ahead.
IV. The arithmetic of the fight for control of the Senate begins with the Dems at 47. Subtracting one, since Democratic incumbent Doug Jones is not likely to be reelected in Alabama, means that they need to gain four (if Biden wins) or five in the unmentionable alternative. Two Republican incumbents appear irretrievably behind—Cory Gardner in Colorado and Martha McSally in Arizona. Tillis for now trails narrowly, as does Susan Collins in Maine. That would make four. Then there are the toss ups: Graham in South Carolina and Joni Ernst in Iowa. And then there are several races in which Republicans appear to be ahead but by surprisingly narrow margins—in Montana, Kansas, maybe Texas, both seats in Georgia. The logic is open to objection, but, just to get the lay of the land, let us suppose that in these five red-state races the Democrat has in each instance a 20 percent chance of winning, and that the outcomes are independent events. The chance of the Republicans sweeping all five races is then given by four-fifths to the fifth power, which is 0.327, or a titch below 1-in-3.
V. McSally's troubles in Arizona could become fodder for Ripley's believe-it-or-not. Two years ago, she was the Republican candidate for the seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake (who has endorsed Biden for president). She lost that race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. Then John McCain died and Arizona's Republican governor appointed McSally to fill his seat. She now is facing the voters again and appears poised to lose again. I wonder whether anyone has ever lost both US Senate seats in their home state, let alone within a two-year period.
Well, she's had a vote in the Senate for a couple of years despite never having been picked by the voters.
VI. I get a kick out of Republican senators, out on the campaign trail, acting all horrified at the prospect of Democrats "packing" the Supreme Court. As if that isn't the project they've been ruthlessly pursuing for years—and not just the Supreme Court! The Republican governor of Texas has ordered that every county in the state have no more than one drop box in which voters in this fall's election can return their ballots. The population of Harris County (Houston) is about 4.75 million. Five other Texas counties have more than a million residents. Nineteen others have a population of less than 2,000. All get one drop box. I'm not even going to get into the question of area, and how far you might have to drive. A judge invalidated the governor's order, on the ground that it raised a barrier to voting in some venues. On appeal, a three judge panel ruled, 2-1, that the lower court's order be stayed and the governor's directive reinstated. All three judges on the appeals panel are Trump appointees. The openings for the positions they hold occurred in 2012, 2013, and 2016, all when Obama was president. The vacancies were held open, in two of the cases not for months but years, until there was a Republican president. Now Amy Coney Barrett is going to be jammed through to a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court in a matter of . . . how many days since RBG died?
After Justice Scalia died nine months before the last presidential election, the Republican senate refused even to hold hearings on Merrick Garland, Obama's nominee for the vacancy. I guess everyone knows that. It's largely forgotten, however, that several Republican senators announced their intention to hold the seat open for four years in the event Hillary Clinton was elected president.
Regarding the appointment of judges, the Republican position is: it's our job to fight hard, employing any method that whatever power we hold allows, and it's your job to lay down like lambs. They're shocked—shocked!—that three or four Democrats are whispering about arming themselves with something besides a butter knife in the event voters give them the power.
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