Today is Walter Mondale’s 93rd birthday.
— Howard Mortman (@HowardMortman) January 5, 2021
On day after his 53rd birthday - Jan. 6, 1981 - he announced his defeat in the electoral college:
“Walter F. Mondale has received 49 votes."
Ovation
Mondale to Tip O'Neill: "A landslide"
O'Neill: "Very impressive"
pic.twitter.com/fSbyuRy9YI
Everyone is wondering what Pence is going to do tomorrow, when he opens the envelope containing the electoral college results before a joint session of Congress. The above is a clip of Walter Mondale, Carter's vice president, performing the pro forma task in 1981. Pray on it, Mike, and take the cue.
Can't believe I'm sitting here watching the returns for two US Senate races out of the state of Georgia, that the Democratic candidates are a Jew and a Black guy, and that everyone agrees the races are going to be close. Indeed, so far, according to Steve Kornacki, it appears that the Democratic candidates are "hitting their numbers," meaning that in county after county they are getting no less than Biden's share of the vote. Turnout, especially in the Atlanta metro, is the outstanding wild card.
My plan is to update this post as the night wears on. If I don't, you can conclude that the box of wine is empty and my motor skills impaired to the point that typing isn’t recommended.
UPDATE: With two-thirds of the expected vote counted, the two Republican candidates have for the first time pulled into the lead. Many of the metro Atlanta counties, however, are still under half in. Some relatively large counties in exurban Atlanta are finished, and the Democratic candidates, overall, appear to have lost them by less than Biden did—and of course Biden won statewide. In Paulding County, for example, Trump defeated Biden by 63.9-34.8, but tonight, in the same county, Republican Kelly Loeffler has defeated Democrat Raphael Warnock by just 63.1-36.9. In a couple other counties, the Republicans are running a point or so ahead of Trump. So it's very close.
The two races are not "twins"—Warnock has been consistently running about a half point ahead of his Democratic peer, Jon Ossoff. This raises the possibility of a split decision—Warnock narrowly wins, Ossoff narrowly loses—in which case of course Republicans would hold on, barely, to their Senate majority.
UPDATE 2: Fwiw, right now, 9:00 p.m. central time, the New York Times election needle indicates that, when it's all done, the Democrats will have won both races: Warnock by 1.7% and Ossoff by 1.0%. The Times's linguistic characterizations of the races are currently "probably Warnock" and "leaning Ossoff." If that holds, Mitch McConnell is looking at a demotion. Fingers crossed.
UPDATE 3: The "Decision Desks" are conservative. Dave Wasserman, of Cook Political Report, says, 9:40 p.m., that he's seen enough: Warnock defeats Loeffler. The other race is still leaning to Ossoff.
UPDATE 4: 10:10 p.m.: The Times's election needle, hyperlinked above, shows both an expected specific result and a range of what is possible. The specific expected result has barely budged—Warnock by 1.8% and Ossoff by 1.0%—but, in the Warnock-Loeffler race, the range of possible outcomes is now all on Warnock's side of the compass. In the Ossoff-Perdue race, there is a tiny sliver of the possible range on Perdue's side. The characterization of that race has shifted from "leans Ossoff" to "quite likely Ossoff."
But what really clinches it: Trump is tweeting about fraud in the elections tonight. It's a reflex. We lose? Fraud!
UPDATE 5 (the last): At 12:30 a.m. Warnock is ahead by about 35,000 votes and Ossoff and Loeffler are essentially tied. The outstanding vote is in heavily Democratic counties. Around a half hour ago, a rural county reported it's last few votes and, though it's a 2-to-1 Republican county, both Democrats actually gained ground—the county reported its mail-in ballots last, and, as in November, the mailed vote is Democratic even in Republican territory. Almost all the remaining vote, besides being in Democratic counties, was cast by mail or in-person during the early voting period. No one thinks it’s anything but navy blue.
Not sure why the "Decision Desks" are reluctant to project winners.
Someone on Twitter says the upside for Kelly Loeffler is that she bought all those baseball caps and flannel shirts so recently that she might be able to return them for a refund.
REALLY THE LAST UPDATE: Finally, 12:45 a.m., NBC declares Warnock the winner. Ossoff has taken a lead of 3560 votes. His final margin is likely to surpass Biden's, which, as everyone knows, thanks to Trump's recent phone call to the Georgia Secretary of State suborning election fraud, was 11,800 votes.
Biden will be able to get all his cabinet nominees confirmed. He will also be able to appoint judges, including to the Supreme Court, as the Constitution but not Mitch McConnell envisioned. Reform of the Supreme Court is a possibility—maybe more justices, but with term limits, the terms expiring on a regular schedule so that vacancies are predictable and not a matter of actuarial calculation. Democrats, not Republicans, will determine what legislation is voted on in the Senate. The whole complexion of everything changes. The story of the election season had been that the Democrats were able to beat Trump but that most everything else was a disappointment. The updated version is that they beat Trump, held the House, and won the Senate.
Signing off, 1:25 a.m., with Ossoff's lead up to 9527 votes. It's over.
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