Symmetry

There is a symmetry to the current political divide in the US. In the last election, Biden and Trump both won 25 states. Also, there are 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans in the Senate. Since each state has two senators, the symmetry would be perfected if the 50 Democratic senators were all from the 25 Biden states and the 50 Republican senators were all from the 25 Trump states. That isn't the case, but it's close. The 25 states Biden won are represented by 47 Democratic senators and 3 Republicans. The 25 states Trump won are represented by 47 Republican senators and 3 Democrats. The Republican exceptions are Senators Toomey (Pennsylvania), Johnson (Wisconsin), and Collins (Maine). The Democratic exceptions are Senators Manchin (West Virginia), Tester (Montana), and Brown (Ohio). The three Democrats may be more doomed than the three Republicans, since Trump won West Virginia (landslide), Montana (smaller landslide), and Ohio (comfortably), while Biden's margins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine were narrow. But in the short term the Republicans are the imperiled ones. Democrats Manchin, Tester, and Brown were all re-elected in 2018, so their terms are not up until 2024. But the Republican seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be on the ballot in 2022. Toomey has announced his retirement, which means there will be no incumbent in the Pennsylvania race. No doubt he wants to spend more time with his family, but it's also possible that he's concluded he's unlikely to win. Even so, he'd probably have a better chance than the Republican who ends up replacing him on the ballot. Johnson, of Wisconsin, is all-in on Trump and has covered himself with ignominy since the election, most recently by arguing that the Jan. 6 insurrection wasn't an insurrection—baseball bats, gallows, and handcuffs, sure, but not enough shots fired, and a modest body count of 5 at the US Capitol. What's the big deal?

There are an odd number of seats (435) in the House of Representatives, so an even split, assuming "full occupancy," is impossible. The current partisan breakdown is 221 Democrats and 211 Republicans with 3 vacancies, which is about as close to 50-50 as you'd expect if you flipped a coin 435 times. On account of the metropolitan-rural divide, augmented by gerrymandering, 435 coin flips is an inapt analogy: most congressional districts are either navy blue or red as a MAGA cap. But, above ground level, the point stands. The navy blue districts are about equal in number to the crimson ones, and the leftovers are closely divided, too. 

How long is this balance apt to persist? I keep arguing that it's actually artificial, a mirage that arises from our penchant for drawing circles of different sizes around people before counting their votes. Biden and Trump may have won 25 states each but Biden won 7 million more votes, which worked out to a margin of 4.5 percent—close, but not that close. Nevertheless, he almost lost in the electoral college, where a shift of fewer than 50,000 votes in three states (and the metro of Omaha, Nebraska) would have sufficed to "re-elect" Trump. While there are an equal number of Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, the 50 Democrats represent more than 55 percent of Americans. (Corollary: the 50 Republicans represent less than 45 percent of us.) I keep whining that this is unfair and undemocratic, which seems to me undeniable. Consider the Supreme Court. When there's a vacancy, the president nominates someone, and the Senate, acting as a check on the president's authority, votes to confirm or reject the nominee. Trump, having been outpolled by Hillary Clinton, made three nominations, all of which were confirmed by a Senate in which Republicans were in the majority despite representing a minority of Americans. By their votes, people indicated they did not want Trump justices, but that's what we got. I'd point out that the decisions of the Supreme Court do not wax and wane as one travels from state to state. Only the weight of a ballot changes from state to state.

But I'm beginning to think there is a downside in this for Republicans, too. They haven't experienced the discipline imposed by the necessity of getting to 50 percent. They might have lost the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections, but they've won 3 of the 8, and gerrymandering and the undemocratic Senate have turbocharged the boost supplied by the electoral college. Why change course? Their access to power hasn't been blocked by the failure to persuade a majority. Again, look at the Supreme Court. But when there are no electoral consequences for recklessness you eventually get a figure like Trump. He's never even tried to get to 50 percent. Instead, he tries to overturn elections. He's been defeated and disgraced. The Republican in the land now holding the highest elected office has as much as said that Trump belongs in prison. There's a clear rift in the party, which in four years has lost Presidency, House, and Senate. Yet Trump is still their guy! It's as if they've gotten so used to not having to change course that they no longer can. Lifelong Republicans are worried that the party could fracture into a Trump faction and a remnant of non-hooligans. "You'll get tired of winning," Trump once promised them.