I meant to work something into my post about the Twins' poor June but then forgot. Here goes:
There's a staple of learned commentary about baseball that I think is unadulterated baloney. Since Twins' color commentator Justin Morneau is one of its advocates, I'm constantly being annoyed by its promulgation, and the time has come to try and exorcise my misery by the usual method: venting. Contrary to what Morneau and a million others believe, there is no reason to think it's a lot better to be behind by only 4 runs, as opposed to 5 or more, in a baseball game. The idea is that if you're behind by 4 you can catch up on "one swing of the bat"—a grand slam home run. But being behind by 4 runs in a baseball game is not at all analogous to being behind by 7 points in a football game. A grand slam is not its own thing, like a touchdown. Other things have to happen before a grand slam can be hit, and those other things make it more likely that a 3-run deficit, or a 5-run deficit, will be overcome, too. The utility of an extra run is the utility of an extra run. Some aren't worth more than others.
The way this often comes up during a broadcast is that the home team, maybe Minnesota, scores a run in the bottom of the eighth inning to go ahead 7-2. Morneau then rhapsodizes about what a "key" run this was, since now, in the ninth inning, "one swing of the bat" can only make the score 7-6, whereas before it would have tied the game. If the Twins are ahead by 2 runs, they can be caught with a 2-run homer; if ahead by 3, they can be caught by a 3-run homer; and, if ahead by 4, they can be caught by a grand slam; but a 5-run lead?—in the clear! That seems to be the "logic."
Actually, you're "in the clear," so to speak, as long as the tying run doesn't come to bat. If you're ahead by a single run, the lead-off batter is the tying run—one swing of his bat can tie the score. If you're ahead by 2 runs, someone has to get to base before "one swing of the bat" can tie the score. If you're ahead by 4 runs, three batters have to get to base safely before "one swing of the bat" ties the score. If you're ahead by 5 runs, four batters have to get to base safely before the tying run bats. The likelihood of these things happening is a smooth downward progression. There is no "jog" in the graph when the deficit goes from 4 to 5.
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