The Twins in August were a .500 club, 14 wins and 14 losses. You might think that a team in contention for a divisional title would go backwards with a record like that over 28 games, but the Twins place in the Central Division standings did not change: they were a game behind the division leading Cleveland Guardians on August 1, and they were a game behind them on September 1, too. A local sportswriter, taking note of this fact, set out yesterday the records of the contending teams over the last 65 games:
Guardians 32-33
White Sox 32-33
Twins 31-34
Well, that's what it's been like all year. Here are the same teams over the course of the whole season, a couple days into September:
Guardians 68-62
Twins 67-64
White Sox 67-66
I was watching the Twins one evening in the middle of August when TV color guy Justin Morneau declared, "One of these teams is going to get hot and win the division." It's true that one of them is going to win the division. I have no idea why he thinks one of the teams is sure to "get hot." Over five months none has. Seems more likely to me that the sixth month will be like the other five. My candidate for color commentary is, "One of these teams is going to win the division by going 17-14 over a thrilling stretch drive." (It's your job to hype interest with expressions like "thrilling stretch drive.")
The Twins' problems aren't obscure. With Buxton and Polanco not playing, the bottom of their batting order is anemic. For the last couple nights, it's been Cave, Sanchez, Celestino. I love pulling for all three, as I have personal reasons for identifying with players who struggle, but facts are facts, and these guys' OPSs are, respectively, .674, .677, and .635. Since Sanchez is our regular catcher, and catchers aren't really expected to hit, let's swap him out for Kepler: day after day, then, we have in our outfield, at the start of "the stretch drive," Celestino (.635) between Cave (.674) and Kepler (.680). To help you get your bearings, the overall OPS in the major leagues so far this year is .707, and outfielders are expected to hit.
Then there is our pitching. After a good April and May, it's been a weakness, and the team was praised for adding three proven pitchers at the August 2 trade deadline. But the trio's results in Twin uniforms—maybe the word is "mixed." Jorge Lopez, for whom expectations were perhaps highest, has four saves but also a loss and two blown saves in 12 games as a Twin. Tyler Mahle got roughed up in Chicago tonight, his first start after being removed from an August game with a sore shoulder and diminished fast ball. Michael Fullmer has been good, not great, which is to say: he's added needed depth. I'm pretty sure we weren't expecting to have half our August games started by either Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, or Aaron Sanchez, and it's fortunate that all three are doing about as well as could be reasonably hoped. We were 6-8 in their starts, 8-6 in games started by Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, or Mahle.
If the Twins weren't in contention, I'd still turn on the TV about 1.5 hours after starting time in hopes of seeing Jhoan Duran pitch. Omg, wtf, etc.! In the last week of August, he pitched in three games, one inning each time, nine up and nine down on four strikeouts and some weak grounders. For the year, his ERA is sub-2 and his WHIP barely registers. He has 11.5 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings pitched. These numbers, however, aren't as telling as the way opposing hitters will take a Duran pitch, then step out of the batter's box to share a laugh with the catcher and umpire. Apparently 102 mph with late diving action is detectable in person, too. To have a chance, I think you'd have to be able to swing an ironing board.
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